After two down months for transportation metrics, the latest Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) revealed an October surprise - as they returned to a more positive posture. Specifically, Transportation Prices were up 7.5 to 61.7, and Transportation Utilization bounced back from a flat 50 reading in September to a solidly expanding 57.3. Combine those two with Transportation Capacity ticking down 0.7 to 54.5, and it reverses a negative freight inversion that began in August.
Why did transportation pick up steam again last month? LMI authors point to retailer expectations of consumer spending activity as the holiday season approaches. The holiday season then, appears to be getting freight moving again to a degree - something it wasn't doing so much the past two months. If spending is strong enough (in spite of some potential headwinds like inflation and the government shutdown), retailers and producers would require more shipments to keep up with inventory - something that jibes with where inventory metrics began to go in October.
The overall LMI was unchanged month-to-month at a still expanding 57.4, as transportation gains were balanced by dips in inventory related measures. Inventory Levels were down 5.6, actually falling into contraction at 49.5 (almost 10 points lower than October 2024). Inventory Costs also fell, more slightly at -2.2 to 73.2.
While the transportation metrics had big moves last month, the biggest swing came in Warehousing Utilization, which dropped 8.8 to 56.5. Warehousing Capacity ticked up 0.5 to 52, and Warehousing Prices gained as well, rising 1.8 to 67.7.
Did the positive news on transportation extend to future expectations? Resoundingly, yes. The overall index in 12 months is projected at 64.6, up 5 points from September's prediction by respondents. The higher figure is driven by expected strength in costs, with Transportation Prices leading the way at a whopping 79.7 compared to a capacity projection of 41.4. Inventory Costs and Warehousing Prices are projected to come in at 72.5 and 72.4 respectively as well, rounding out those elevated cost predictions.
See the summary of the October 2025 Logistics Managers' Index, by the numbers:
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno - in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) - issue the report. The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices.
The LMI is calculated using a diffusion index, in which any reading above 50.0 indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50.0 is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry. The latest results of the LMI summarize the responses of supply chain professionals collected in October 2025. Learn more about the index on our podcast with its primary author Zac Rogers, Ph.D., associate professor of Supply Chain Management at Colorado State University.
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