The headlines coming from key analysts in the freight industry say things like, "Largest capacity purge in history coming." Stories behind those seemingly sensational titles outline a just as jarring scenario - how the U.S. trucking industry faces simultaneous pressures that could remove 400,000 to 600,000 drivers from the available pool over the next two to three years. Fortunately, there's a simple answer for long-haul shippers to protect themselves - intermodal.
Why are such a significant chunk of truck drivers potentially disappearing? Four factors are converging at once:
1. Non-Domiciled CDL Restrictions
In September 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation issued an emergency rule restricting non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses. According to the Eno Center for Transportation, approximately 97% of the 200,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders would not qualify under the new requirements.
While that rule is still in the midst of court challenges, DOT just last week issued a final rule, set to take effect in mid-March 2026, that includes similar language - restricting nondomiciled CDLs to individuals with an H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visa. Applicants will additionally have to present an unexpired foreign passport and approved Form I-94 to confirm eligibility.
2. English Language Proficiency Enforcement
Effective June 2025, drivers who fail an English proficiency assessment during roadside inspection are immediately placed out of service. More than 1,500 drivers were removed in the first 30 days of enforcement. The policy affects any driver who struggles with English communication, regardless of visa status.
3. Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse
More than 190,000 CDL drivers are currently listed in "prohibited" status in the FMCSA Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse. Marijuana accounts for more than 60% of violations. As of November 2024, state licensing agencies must downgrade commercial driving privileges for anyone in prohibited status.
4. Aging Workforce
According to the American Trucking Associations, 28% of current truck drivers are 55 or older, while only 12% are under 25. The ATA projects the industry needs 1.2 million new drivers over the next decade just to cover retirements and turnover.
Long-haul lanes over 500 miles face the greatest exposure to capacity constraints. These moves require drivers to spend multiple nights away from home, making them the hardest lanes to staff as the driver pool tightens and turnover rises. When capacity shrinks, these long-haul lanes are the first to feel the impact.
As trucking capacity tightens, the market response is predictable:
The 2020–2021 capacity crunch made this dynamic unmistakably clear. Market conditions shifted faster than most shippers expected. Those with diversified freight strategies, including active intermodal programs, were able to pivot and maintain service continuity. Shippers that had abandoned intermodal during the preceding soft market found themselves exposed, struggling to re-enter the network and secure capacity at the moment they needed it most.
This is where intermodal becomes the natural pressure-relief valve. Intermodal networks are capital-intensive and slower to scale in real time, but they are built with latent capacity. When trucking tightens, railroads and intermodal providers can activate that capacity by reallocating train starts, equipment, and network resources across long-haul corridors.
In effect, intermodal operates like a coiled spring, positioned to absorb freight when trucking reaches its limits. Intermodal transportation combines rail for the long-haul portion of a move with truck drayage for pickup and delivery. That structure creates built-in insulation from the capacity shocks that regularly disrupt the truckload market.
The lesson is straightforward: intermodal is not a fair-weather option. It is a strategic hedge against the very capacity disruptions that define long-haul trucking cycles.
Class 1 railroads operate their own locomotives and employ their own train crews. The regulatory pressures facing trucking, including CDL availability, English-language enforcement, hours-of-service rules, and the FMCSA Clearinghouse, do not apply to rail labor in the same way.
When freight moves intermodal, the long-haul segment is removed entirely from the trucking labor equation. That separation matters most when trucking capacity tightens, because the most constrained part of the move, the long-haul driver, is no longer the limiting factor.
In practical terms, intermodal converts a driver-dependent problem into a network-capacity problem, which behaves very differently under stress.
Intermodal drayage service draws from a local driver base, typically operating within 30–50 miles of rail terminals. These drivers are home every night and avoid the lifestyle challenges that drive turnover in long-haul trucking.
As a result, the structural driver shortage that impacts long-haul trucking does not affect drayage markets in the same way or to the same degree. In addition, drayage drivers can complete multiple turns per day, multiplying effective capacity versus a long-haul driver committed to a single load for several days.
This creates an important distinction: even when long-haul trucking tightens, the pickup and delivery side of intermodal often remains serviceable, allowing freight to continue flowing.
Rail Capacity Scales Differently Than Trucking Capacity
According to the US Department of Transportation, there are over 700,000 registered motor carriers, with 91.0% operating six or fewer trucks and 97.3% operating fewer than twenty trucks. This extreme fragmentation is a defining characteristic of the truckload market.
That fragmentation is why truckload pricing moves quickly. Capacity can enter or exit the market with relative ease as small fleets add trucks, park equipment, or shift lanes in response to spot rates and demand signals. It is also why trucking capacity can scale rapidly when conditions change, for better or worse.
Intermodal capacity behaves very differently.
Rail capacity is capital-intensive and slow to build. Class 1 railroads invest billions of dollars in terminals, mainline infrastructure, locomotives, and equipment pools. These projects take years to plan, permit, and construct. Once deployed, that capacity is durable and efficient, but it is not easily or quickly reconfigured.
This creates a clear trade-off. Rail networks are not constrained by driver availability in the same way trucking is, which gives intermodal a structural long-term advantage. However, rail capacity cannot instantly adjust to short-term demand spikes. As a result, intermodal capacity often lags economic inflection points, missing sudden peaks and coming fully online only after conditions begin to normalize.
The difference in how trucking and intermodal capacity scale is a primary reason the two markets behave so differently over time. Truckload reacts quickly but is fragile under stress. Intermodal reacts slowly but provides durability when trucking reaches its limits.
That durability is what makes intermodal an effective capacity protection strategy, not a tactical substitute used only when rates rise.
Beyond capacity protection, intermodal offers structural cost advantages and pricing stability / protection on appropriate lanes.
Fuel Efficiency: Rail moves one ton of freight 470 miles on a single gallon of fuel, compared to 134 miles for truck. This efficiency translates to lower cost per mile on lanes over 500 miles.
Typical Savings: On lanes over 700 miles with good terminal access, intermodal saves 10-15% compared to truckload, even in soft freight markets. When capacity tightens and truckload spot rates spike, the savings differential widens further.
Sustainability: Intermodal reduces carbon emissions by 60-75% compared to truckload on equivalent lanes, supporting ESG goals and customer sustainability requirements.
Pricing Stability: Intermodal contract rates tend to be more stable than truckload rates during market volatility. Rail pricing doesn't react as quickly to short-term demand swings, providing more predictable budgeting.
For detailed cost comparisons, see Intermodal Cost Analysis: Why It's Often Cheaper Than Truckload.
Intermodal performs best on lanes with these characteristics:
| Factor | Ideal for Intermodal |
|---|---|
| Distance | 500+ miles (optimal at 700+) |
| Terminal access | Origin and destination within 50 miles of ramps |
| Transit flexibility | Can accommodate truck transit plus one day |
| Volume | Consistent, predictable shipment patterns |
| Weight | Under 42,500 lbs payload |
Distance matters most. The rail linehaul is where intermodal gains its cost advantage. Shorter lanes don't allow enough rail miles to offset dray costs at both ends.
Terminal proximity affects total cost. Every mile of dray adds cost and transit time. Lanes where both origin and destination are close to major intermodal ramps deliver the best economics.
Transit flexibility determines fit. Intermodal typically adds one day to truck transit when freight stays on a single railroad, and two to three days when interchange between railroads is required. Freight with tight delivery windows may not be suitable.
For lane-by-lane evaluation guidance, read Comparing Truckload vs. Intermodal: 11 Differences Shippers Should Know.
Intermodal is not the right solution for every shipment:
Understanding these limitations helps shippers build realistic intermodal programs. The goal is matching the right mode to each lane, not forcing intermodal where it doesn't fit. For more detail, see When Intermodal Is the Wrong Fit and What to Use Instead.
Step 1: Identify candidate lanes.
Review your freight network for lanes over 500 miles currently moving by truckload. Pull shipment data for the past 12 months and sort by origin-destination pair and volume. Focus first on your highest-volume long-haul lanes, as these offer the greatest potential savings and capacity protection.
Step 2: Evaluate terminal access.
Check proximity to intermodal ramps at both origin and destination. Major terminals are located in most metropolitan areas. Dray distances under 50 miles optimize cost and service. Your IMC can provide terminal maps and help identify which ramps serve your lanes.
Step 3: Partner with an experienced IMC.
An Intermodal Marketing Company coordinates the full shipment from origin dray through rail linehaul to destination dray. Look for providers offering:
The quality of your IMC determines your service experience. Not all providers operate the same way.
Step 4: Test before committing.
Run pilot shipments on candidate lanes to validate transit times, service quality, and total landed cost before shifting significant volume. Start with lanes that have some transit flexibility so you can evaluate performance without risking critical deliveries.
Track on-time performance, accessorial charges, and any service exceptions during the pilot period. Compare total landed cost to your current truckload spend on the same lanes.
Step 5: Scale gradually.
Once you've validated performance on pilot lanes, expand to additional lanes systematically. Build intermodal into your routing guide as a primary option on lanes where it performs well, not just as a backup when trucks aren't available.
For a complete implementation guide, read User Experience: Switching to 53' Domestic Intermodal Freight Services.
Blocking and bracing requirements. Intermodal containers experience harmonic vibration during rail transit. Freight must be properly secured to prevent shifting. Your IMC can provide load diagrams and blocking requirements specific to your commodity.
Weight distribution matters. Intermodal shipments are weighed at rail terminals. Weight must be distributed properly and within the 42,500 lb payload limit. Concentrated weight or improper distribution can cause rejections at the ramp.
Cut-off times differ from truckload. Rail schedules operate on fixed departure times. Missing a cut-off means waiting for the next train, which could add a day to transit. Plan pickup times to meet ramp cut-offs with buffer for delays.
Accessorial charges exist but are manageable. Detention, storage, and chassis fees can occur if containers aren't picked up or returned on time. A good IMC manages these proactively and includes them in landed cost discussions upfront.
Communication cadence may differ. Intermodal tracking works differently than truckload GPS. Containers are scanned at terminal entry, train departure, train arrival, and terminal exit. Your IMC should provide consolidated visibility that feels similar to truckload tracking.
For guidance on avoiding common issues, see Railroad Service vs. Drayage Service: How to Avoid Intermodal Delays.
Conservative estimates suggest 400,000 to 600,000 drivers could exit the available pool over the next two to three years due to non-domiciled CDL restrictions (194,000), Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse prohibitions (190,000+), English proficiency enforcement, and accelerating retirements.
Intermodal's rail linehaul uses railroad crews, not CDL holders. Drayage drivers work locally for short distances, a different labor market than long-haul trucking. The regulatory pressures on trucking don't apply to rail operations.
On lanes over 700 miles with good terminal access, intermodal typically saves 10-15% compared to truckload. During capacity crunches when trucking rates spike, the differential can widen significantly.
Intermodal transit is typically truck transit plus one day when freight stays on a single railroad. Lanes requiring interchange between two railroads add two to three days. See 53' Intermodal vs. Truckload Shipping for detailed transit comparisons.
Evaluate distance (500+ miles), terminal proximity (under 50 miles dray), transit flexibility, volume consistency, and weight (under 42,500 lbs). Our team can help assess your specific lanes.
Domestic intermodal uses 53' containers that can be double-stacked on rail cars. The container is lifted off a chassis at the origin ramp, placed on the train, then lifted onto another chassis at the destination ramp. The freight stays sealed in the same container throughout. See What Is Rail Intermodal? for more detail.
Initial pilot shipments can begin within days of setting up an account with an IMC. Validating performance and expanding to multiple lanes typically takes 60-90 days. Full integration into routing guides and TMS systems may take longer depending on your technology environment.
Yes, many retail shippers use intermodal successfully for distribution center replenishment. The key is building appropriate buffer time into your planning to accommodate the longer transit window. Intermodal works well for planned replenishment; it's less suited for emergency or expedited orders.
The current freight environment offers favorable conditions to test and implement intermodal. Rates are stable, equipment is available, and building intermodal capability now positions your network before capacity tightens.
Request a lane analysis and our team will evaluate your long-haul freight, identify intermodal opportunities, and provide specific recommendations for your network.
Domestic freight services: