Diesel prices are a key factor in freight rates each year, so where are they headed in 2026? Let's take a look at what predictions suggest diesel fuel will cost in the next year, then look back at the price at the pump over the past 12 months.
Predicting Diesel Prices in 2026
Retail diesel prices are expected to get less expensive in 2026, dropping an anticipated 7% to an average of $3.50 per gallon according to the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) outlook. This would mark the fourth straight year of lower diesel.
So why the decline? Prices at the pump are most directly influenced by the cost of crude oil, and the EIA expects inventories of crude globally to rise throughout the year, which will in turn lower the price per barrel.
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Diving further into the projections, the EIA expects the highest average for 2026 to occur in the first quarter, as the price continues to fall from this year's November peak. The Q1 average is anticipated at $3.59. The lowest quarter should then be the second, at $3.41, followed by a slightly higher Q3 at $3.47 and another rise in the final quarter to $3.54.
Much like 2025, the EIA is expecting a generally balanced energy market in 2026, with global crude oil production (and U.S.-only production) to stay remarkably steady throughout the year. The nearly flat line for 2026 in the above figure is an illustration of that expected balance - which, to put it at a number, should come to 44.2 million barrels per day without much fluctuation.
In the U.S., CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to slightly decline next year after a small bump in 2025.
What could raise diesel prices in 2026?
With predictions there are no sure things, and diesel prices are influenced by a combination of four primary components:
- Oil production
- Demand
- Natural disasters
- Geopolitical events
As oil production is expected to be steady and more than adequate for the year, the other components come into play as x-factors.
Natural disasters are hard to actually predict, but the likelihood is, something will occur in a given year. After a 2024 that saw the U.S. deal with major damages in parts of North Carolina and Florida from two hurricanes, the nation was spared any significant hurricane impacts in 2025.
Disasters can disrupt oil production and diesel delivery - especially as hurricanes often find their way through the Gulf states, which are home to much of the country's production and refining capacity. Storms and other destructive natural - or unnatural - events like fires, explosions, earthquakes, etc., can also impact demand – in both the near term and over a longer horizon – so they’re always a critical variable to watch.
Geopolitics play a key role as well, with Russia continuing its incursion into Ukraine for yet another year - leading to impacts on refineries in the two countries and sanctions against Russia taking its supply out of many markets. As a reminder, the EU banned importation of Russian oil and oil products when the invasion began, and in October of this year, added restrictions on companies based in the country that process products in other locales, like Turkey and India.
Other ongoing areas to watch are continued conflict in Israel-Palestine, global inflation, U.S. tariff policy, and how/where China gets its supply.
Diesel and Freight in 2026
Experts predict diesel supply will outstrip demand for 2026 - which essentially indicates they're not thinking freight will suddenly take off again and use substantially more fuel. That unfortunately dovetails with what InTek and others in the industry expect as well, with the year positioned as likely flat with any upward movement reserved for the tail-end.
As a refresher, linehaul and diesel are the two main components of freight costs, as diesel powers just about all the world's transportation modes - including the key domestic ones of truck and train. In essence, higher diesel costs translate directly into higher freight costs for shippers, whether fuel is embedded in the base rate or passed through as a separate fuel surcharge.
To take something positive from a rather negative outlook, at this time in 2024, there was actually optimism that 2025 would be a solid year for freight, so perhaps lower expectations will lead to a better reality. If some catalyst does get transportation going though, it would likely elevate diesel prices along with freight rates.
Recapping 2025 Diesel Prices
Setting the stage for any predictions requires a look back: in 2025, the average price of diesel in the U.S. to begin the year was $3.56 per gallon - technically measured on January 6 - down $0.32 from the start of the year prior, incidentally. As weekly tracking continued throughout 2025, the price at the pump fell as low as $3.45 on June 2, and peaked at $3.87 just a few weeks prior to this writing on November 17.
The most recent average as December began for on-highway diesel was $3.67 a gallon, down a bit from the year's highest reading, but about 10 cents above the beginning of 2025 (and as a reminder, 30 cents above the year's low). The past 12 months saw a lower priced start, followed by an initial rise, the dip to the low, and then generally a climb to where it stands now. The EIA provides the data in more appealing visual form:
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The chart shows what we just mentioned, that the national average fluctuated a bit, but ended up rising before another dip as the year wound down. While the nation as a whole never saw prices average $4 or more (something that did occur in 2024), California and the West Coast stayed above that figure the full year, with New England and the Central Atlantic getting into that rate briefly multiple times. On the flip side, the Gulf Coast only just nicked the $3.50 mark in November.
Now that we've discussed the what, let's go over the why. In the first quarter when prices first climbed, experts pointed to supply of crude oil exceeding demand, with OPEC continuing to keep production down. January 20, of course, marked the beginning of the second Trump Administration, and his trade policies began to have influence on the marketplace as well, with uncertainty clouding some pricing.
Trump's pledges to increase oil supply though, did help lead to that June low, before tensions in the Middle East led to it shooting up 30 cents a gallon over a three week span. The recent peak coincides with a somewhat significant drop in supply as demand stayed roughly consistent.
Revisiting our prediction article, the EIA expected the average diesel price for the year to be $3.61 per gallon. After all the fluctuations and geopolitical changes, the projection was pretty close - the average as of December was $3.67.
However you're shipping freight in 2026 (and whichever diesel-powered mode you use), partner with InTek to keep your cargo moving smoothly. Just request a quote, and we'll follow right up to discuss solutions for your particular needs. For more information about InTek, or logistics and supply chain issues in general, check out our Freight Guides.
