InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | June 15, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Double digits hasn't slowed intermodal spot rates down, as it's now 11 straight weeks of gains. Two more streaks are intact as well, as truckload and intermodal have both improved for three consecutive weeks, while diesel has declined for six straight (with $5 a gallon in sight). And U.S. intermodal volumes are at another fresh high versus last year.

The single most important number this week is the intermodal year-over-year gap. It has closed to -0.2%. At the late-March cycle low it sat at -8.4%. For practical purposes, intermodal spot rates are now level with where they were a year ago. One more week at the current pace and they cross into positive territory annually for the first time since this downcycle began.

That crossing matters because it marks a definitive end to the rate trough rather than a forecast of one. The qualifier this report has carried for several weeks still applies alongside the milestone, and it is the part shippers need to hear. Rates are recovering far faster than volume. That gap is the tell.

A rally where rates run this far ahead of volume is being driven by capacity leaving the market, not by a surge in freight demand. That capacity has exited under two sustained pressures, elevated fuel costs and tighter FMCSA enforcement, and capacity that leaves under those conditions does not return quickly. All said, the market is tighter than the volume numbers make it look.

Diesel Fuel (EIA):

• $5.06/gallon
• Down $0.15 (2.9%) vs. prior week
• Up $1.49 (41.7%) vs. prior year

Diesel declined for a sixth consecutive week and is now $0.059 from the $5.00 mark. The cumulative pullback from the April 6 near-peak of $5.643 stands at $0.584. The 2022 record of $5.810, a threat that looked imminent six weeks ago, now sits $0.751 away. The risk of a new diesel record has moved from near-term to theoretical, with the standard caveat that crude markets can reprice quickly on new geopolitical developments.

The year-over-year comparison has also begun to moderate, easing from above 50% in recent weeks to 41.7% here. Part of that is the current price falling and part is the prior-year base, but the direction is what matters for cost models: the year-over-year fuel penalty is shrinking.

For carriers, six weeks of declining diesel is meaningful margin relief after a long stretch above $5.60. The economics of staying in the market improve, which slows the pace of capacity exits. It does not reverse them. Operators who left during the worst of the fuel shock made structural decisions that a few weeks of easing do not undo.

For shippers, $5.059 diesel remains 41.7% above year-ago levels, so the elevated fuel environment has not normalized. What has changed is that the trajectory now works in shippers' favor, and the cumulative $0.584 pullback is large enough to update landed-cost models around. Build those models around a range that reflects both the current downward trend and the continued possibility of geopolitical reversal.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)