Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis

Weekly discussion and analysis: Trends in the intermodal spot rate market

For the week of October 27, 2025, domestic intermodal spot rate index:

• Down 0.1% vs. prior week.
• Down 2.4% vs. prior year.

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2024

The latest weekly data confirms what most in the industry have already sensed, which is peak season is firmly behind us, and the market is now easing into a slower close to the year.

Economic and tariff-related headwinds have become the defining storylines as we move toward 2026. Many importers accelerated purchases ahead of potential tariff escalations, while companies across most sectors continue to hold inventories lean, prioritizing cash flow and flexibility over replenishment.

We believe 2026 is shaping up to resemble the 2019 freight environment, which was a period of uneven activity in which stable pricing masked underlying volume weakness. Even modest improvements in industrial production, housing, or consumer spending are unlikely to offset the broader drag from ongoing trade friction, cautious inventory strategies, and persistent overcapacity across most transportation modes.

From InTek’s perspective, 2025 will close out as a transitional year characterized by flat year-over-year growth in domestic intermodal and selective demand recovery focused on high-service, rail-competitive lanes.

The inflection point for a freight recovery appears to be a late-2026 story at best, hinging on genuine demand-side improvement rather than further supply-side corrections.

North American Intermodal: 2.6%

United States: 3.0%

Railroad

• BNSF: 3.0%
• CN: 4.6%
• CPKC: 8.8%
• CSX: 4.2%
• GMXT: 1.2%
• NS: 0.4%
• UP: 2.0%

Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate

National Truckload Spot Rate (as reported by the DAT Trendline Report):

• Up 1.0% vs. prior week.
• Down 1.0% vs. prior year.

Domestic 53' Intermodal Spot Rate:

• Down 0.1% vs. prior week.
• Down 2.4% vs. prior year.

The Intermodal Spot Rate Index peaked in weeks 29 and 30 but has fallen flat since.

When adjusting for estimated fuel costs, intermodal rates are now at their lowest level since week 31 of last year.

Southern California has been the only market holding firm on price. Once that market softens, which is likely as tariff-driven inventory purchases wind down, we expect the intermodal spot rate market to slide back to levels not seen since 2017.

For a full review of the 2025 US Intermodal Savings Against Truckload we point you to a tremendous piece of research the Journal of Commerce publishes quarterly.

Diesel Fuel Update

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an average diesel fuel price of $3.718 per gallon this week, which is up $0.098 or 2.7% from the prior week.

The diesel price per gallon is up $0.145 or 4.1% from the same period last year.

The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel. 

Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs

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