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InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

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Weekly market intelligence including the InTek Intermodal Index (tracking intermodal spot rates), along with truckload pricing, diesel trends, and railroad volumes

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: July 30, 2026

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending July 27, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▼ -0.7% vs. last week

▲ +1.8% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▼ -3.1% vs. last week 

▲ +28.7% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

▲ +3.5% vs. last week 

▲ +39.6% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▲ +3.5%

North American ▲ +2.8%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | July 27, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

The mode comparison shifted from a linehaul story to a fuel story this week. Truckload spot eased 3.1% and its year-over-year premium finally slipped below 29% after holding at 29.4% for four straight weeks. Intermodal spot softened 0.7%. Diesel climbed a third consecutive week to $5.313 and is now 39.6% above last year, the widest fuel gap of this run.

Read those together and the composition of intermodal's cost advantage changed even though the advantage itself held. The linehaul spread between the two modes narrowed as truckload came off its July peak. The fuel spread widened. For a shipper pricing the all-in comparison, the piece doing the work this week is diesel, not the linehaul rate.

Nothing this week changes the underlying read. Truckload is coming off a distortion-driven peak rather than rolling over on demand, and intermodal continues to hold share while total freight stays soft. What moved is the fuel line, and it moved against over-the-road.

The demand read is the same, and the cost read is where the movement resides. Truckload remains expensive because capacity left, not because freight arrived, and the modest easing this week is the holiday distortion finishing its unwind rather than a demand signal turning over.

For shippers, the practical version is that the intermodal case now rests more on fuel than on linehaul - as it did a month ago. When the linehaul spread was doing the work, a shipper could model the comparison off rate alone. With diesel 39.6% above last year and the fuel-efficiency gap between the modes fixed, the fuel line is now the largest single variable in the all-in comparison. Price the spread on total landed cost with fuel in it, not on linehaul.

InTek Intermodal Index (excluding fuel):

  • Down 0.7% vs. prior week
  • Up 1.8% vs. prior year

The InTek Intermodal Index (III), which tracks intermodal spot rates, was down 0.7% for the week, a second straight week lower, while the year-over-year reading firmed to +1.8% from +1.1%. It's worth being precise about that split, because the two point in different directions. The weekly move is the live signal and it is soft. The year-over-year improvement is largely a comparison-base effect, since the same week last year sat lower, so it reads as strengthening without the current price actually rising.

The read on this move is that intermodal spot is flat to slightly soft on a working-week basis, which fits a market where converting freight is finding available capacity rather than bidding it up. The four-week trend still matters more than either single print.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Down 3.1% vs. prior week
  • Up 28.7% vs. prior year

Truckload spot fell 3.1%, and the four-week sequence now reads up 7.4%, down 5.0%, up 4.8%, down 3.1%. That is oscillation around a level rather than a trend, and the level sits roughly 5% above the pre-holiday base. The more useful move is the year-over-year reading, which eased to 28.7% after printing 29.4% for four consecutive weeks. That is the first give in the year-over-year premium since the Independence Day distortion, and it suggests the July peak is behind us.

The premium is still large, and the repricing runway against contract-weighted linehaul in the mid single digits has not closed. Truckload coming off its peak hardly means truckload is getting cheap.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $5.313/gallon
  • Up $0.179 (3.5%) vs. prior week
  • Up $1.508 (39.6%) vs. prior year

Diesel rose 17.9 cents to $5.313, a third straight weekly increase, and now sits 39.6% above last year. Over three weeks it has added roughly (in both math and impact) 73 cents per gallon.

The driver has remained the same. Crude has not led this move. Instead, the tightness is in refining and distillate supply, which is why diesel has climbed while crude has stayed contained.

For a shipper, that continues to mean a crude forecast is not a fuel-surcharge forecast, and the two should not be modeled as if they move together right now. Intermodal is roughly three times more fuel efficient than over-the-road trucking, so at a 39.6% year-over-year diesel gap, the fuel component is the single largest line separating the two modes on cost.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)

 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

Year-to-date volume held flat in total, with North American intermodal at 2.8% and U.S. intermodal at 3.5%, both unchanged from last week. Underneath the flat top line, the individual carriers moved in both directions, which is normal week-to-week noise on a cumulative figure this far into the year.

GMXT moved from 17.4% to 18.7%, though it runs off a smaller base than the U.S. carriers and its readings swing further on any given week, so it should be weighted accordingly. NS added a tenth to 4.2% and UP improved from -1.7% to -1.4%. CSX eased to 5.9% and BNSF to 5.2%, both giving back a tenth or two. CN slipped from -1.8% to -2.3%, the softest reading in the group.

The overall picture - the one that matters - is still steady. U.S. intermodal running 3.5% ahead of last year against a total freight market that contracted in the latest Cass data is the share story continuing, without a demand twist.

North American Intermodal

2.8%

U.S. Intermodal

3.5%

Volume by Class 1 Railroad

BNSF 5.2%
CN -2.3%
CPKC -1.4%
CSX 5.9%
GMXT 18.7%
NS 4.2%
UP -1.4%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Intermodal Spot Rate Average Per Mile (2014-2026)

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Intermodal Spot Rate Y/Y % Change (2014-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of August 3, 2026.

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Does truckload spot confirm a peak?

The four-week sequence is wavering and the year-over-year premium eased below 29% for the first time since the holiday. Watch whether spot continues lower or settles above its pre-holiday base. Where it settles is the read on how much of July's strength was real.

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Does diesel roll over or keep climbing?

Three straight increases to $5.313. Watch the August 4 EIA print for whether refining tightness is still driving the move or relief is finally starting. Every week diesel holds at this level, the intermodal fuel advantage compounds and third-quarter fuel-surcharge exposure on truckload gets heavier.

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Does intermodal volume hold its share lead?

U.S. intermodal held at 3.5% year to date against a contracting total freight market. Watch whether the next AAR prints keep it there, since holding share while freight shrinks is the durable signal more than any single week of spot pricing.

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Do the two intermodal series start moving together? Yes and no. Both intermodal and truck spot rates decreased week-over-week, but intermodal climbed on a year-over-year basis and truckload did not.

  • Does diesel keep running on refining tightness? Yes. Diesel added another 3.5% to $5.313 for a third straight weekly increase, widening the year-over-year gap to 39.6% from 34.7%. The refining-versus-crude disconnect held.

  • Does contract start chasing spot? Still pending a new contract read. No fresh Cass linehaul print this week. From the spot side, truckload eased 3.1% and its year-over-year premium slipped to 28.7%, so the spot-to-contract gap narrowed slightly from the top rather than from contract rising to meet it. The repricing question stays open until the next contract data lands.

About the InTek Intermodal Index:

The InTek Intermodal Index (III) tracks weekly domestic intermodal spot rates on a per-mile basis, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. Each week's report includes comprehensive market analysis covering truckload pricing trends, diesel fuel costs, and Class I railroad intermodal volumes to provide context for rate movements.

Published every Thursday since 2014, the Index serves as a resource for shippers, carriers, and industry analysts tracking North American freight market trends.

Citation: InTek Intermodal Index. (2026). Weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Report. Retrieved from https://www.inteklogistics.com/spot-rates

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