While the freight market is certainly short of humming along for all, the March Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) shows some pretty clear signs of strength. Last month's overall reading of 65.7 represents the highest rate of expansion since May of 2022 - up 4.2 from February. And this expansion is directly tied to the key shipping metrics that measure freight market health.
Transportation Prices leapt 12.7 monthly to 89.4, while Transportation Capacity ticked down 1.8 even deeper into contraction at 39.2. The math is simple, and stark, as the gap between the two is just over 50 points - representing what's usually considered an ideal combination for freight providers. Transportation Utilization incidentally, was up just slightly (1 point) to 62.9.
Before getting deeper into explanation, the other components bear watching as well. Inventory Levels were +1 monthly to 54.8 - in expansion, but not strongly so, while Inventory Costs were the highest riser besides Transportation Costs, going up 8.4 to 76.2. Warehousing Prices also gained steam, up 4.8 from February to 67.4. Warehousing Capacity fell into contraction, dropping 4 points to 46, while Warehousing Utilization ticked down 0.5 to 59.8.
So what does all this mean, especially as we follow continued volume (and rate) concerns on the intermodal side?
LMI authors note that the Transportation Price metric looks a lot like March 2022, not only in number (89.4 vs 89.7), but in situation. The similarities are directly tied to oil supply disruptions. Last month, it was the Iran attacks showing up in rising freight costs. Four years ago, it was the beginning of Russia's attacks on Ukraine. This year is seeing approximately 20% of the world oil supply affected, while Russian sanctions hit about half that in 2022.
While transportation prices look the same, authors note that inventory is far different in 2026. Four years ago was essentially the tail end of the pandemic-related freight peak, which had Inventory Levels still loaded up (at 75.7) as shippers had been capitalizing on consumer demand (just a couple of months later as costs rose, consumers stopped buying and freight stopped moving).
This time around, that Inventory Levels metric is at 54.8 as businesses shifted away from loading up warehouses to a more just-in-time type strategy. That means, even if demand stays somewhat low (which, by volume, it still has), freight will need to continue moving to a degree. So the overall question of how the freight market will do going forward still ties into whether consumers (and manufacturers) will find costs palatable enough to get buying again.
As for the industry outlook, 12 months from now, pros surveyed are still optimistic, with the LMI for March 2027 projected at 67.8 (+1.5 from February). The Transportation Prices vs Transportation Capacity gap is expected to continue to drive strength, while Inventory Levels are predicted to rise a bit more along with costs. Authors caveat that high numbers in all the pricing metrics could actually make inflation a bigger issue again, which would blunt demand growth and even push it to contract.
See the summary of the March 2026 Logistics Managers' Index, by the numbers:
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno - in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) - issue the report. The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices.
The LMI is calculated using a diffusion index, in which any reading above 50.0 indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50.0 is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry. The latest results of the LMI summarize the responses of supply chain professionals collected in March 2026. Learn more about the index on our podcast with its primary author Zac Rogers, Ph.D., associate professor of Supply Chain Management at Colorado State University.
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