Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis

Weekly discussion and analysis: Trends in the intermodal spot rate market

For the week of January 5, 2026, domestic intermodal spot rate index:

• Down 0.9% vs. prior week.
• Down 5.4% vs. prior year.

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2024

Economic and tariff-related headwinds have become the defining storylines as we move into 2026. Many importers accelerated purchases ahead of potential tariff escalations, while companies across most sectors continue to hold inventories lean, prioritizing cash flow and flexibility over replenishment.

We believe 2026 is shaping up to resemble the 2019 freight environment, which was a period of uneven activity in which stable pricing masked underlying volume weakness. Even modest improvements in industrial production, housing, or consumer spending are unlikely to offset the broader drag from ongoing trade friction, cautious inventory strategies, and persistent overcapacity across most transportation modes.

The inflection point for a freight recovery appears to be a late-2026 story at best, hinging on genuine demand-side improvement rather than further supply-side corrections.

North American Intermodal: 1.6%

United States: 1.5%

Railroad

• BNSF: 1.2%
• CN: 6.1%
• CPKC: 8.5%
• CSX: 3.8%
• GMXT: 0.4%
• NS: -1.1%
• UP: -0.1%

Comparison of Truckload to Intermodal Spot Rate

National Truckload Spot Rate (as reported by the DAT Trendline Report):

• Up 3.8% vs. prior week.
• Up 1.5% vs. prior year.

Domestic 53' Intermodal Spot Rate:

• Down 0.9% vs. prior week.
• Down 5.4% vs. prior year.

The Intermodal Spot Rate Index peaked in weeks 29 and 30 of 2025 but has fallen flat since.

Southern California has been the only market holding firm on price. Once that market softens, which is likely as tariff-driven inventory purchases wind down, we expect the intermodal spot rate market to slide back to levels not seen since 2017.

For a full review of the 2025 US Intermodal Savings Against Truckload we point you to a tremendous piece of research the Journal of Commerce publishes quarterly.

Diesel Fuel Update

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an average diesel fuel price of $3.48 per gallon this week, which is down $0.02 or 0.7% from the prior week.

The diesel price per gallon is down $0.03 or 0.08% from the same period last year.

The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel. 

Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs

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