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InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

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Weekly market intelligence including the InTek Intermodal Index (tracking intermodal spot rates), along with truckload pricing, diesel trends, and railroad volumes

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: October 8, 2026 | View historical archive

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending October 5, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▲ +1.4% vs. last week

▲ +5.6% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▼ -1.3% vs. last week 

▲ +46.8% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

▼ -2.9% vs. last week 

▲ +67% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▲ +4%

North American ▲ +3.3%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | October 5, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Intermodal firmed while truckload and diesel both eased, and the volume underneath kept building. Intermodal spot rose 1.4% and held 5.6% above last year. Truckload spot fell 1.3% but stayed 46.8% above last year. Diesel dropped for a second straight week to $6.199. The intermodal climb that ran through September is still intact, and the freight volume has started moving with it rather than lagging.

Intermodal spot has now firmed in six of the last seven weeks. The annual reading sits at 5.6%, off the 6.9% high but still well above where it started the climb, and the pullback in the year-over-year number is a comparison-base effect from a higher year-ago week more than any softening this week.

The read underneath has shifted in intermodal's favor. Volume momentum is running ahead of the raw year-to-date figures, with the underlying growth rate in the mid-single digits once the calendar noise is set aside. Add truckload easing and diesel coming off its highs, and the picture is that intermodal is holding its gains while the two things that could have worked against it, a truckload pullback and a fuel retreat, both stayed modest this week.

Intermodal rose while truckload eased. That is the spread doing what it does when intermodal firms and truckload takes a breath, and it comes with volume building underneath rather than rates running on their own.

The playbook holds for shippers. Price the spread on total landed cost with fuel included. Diesel has come off its two week highs, but at 67% above last year the fuel line is still the largest single item in the comparison. Shippers should continue to watch the 3-2-1 crack spread for the read on their fuel surcharge budgets.

InTek Intermodal Index (excluding fuel):

  • Up 1.4% vs. prior week
  • Up 5.6% vs. prior year

The InTek Intermodal Index (III), which tracks intermodal spot rates, rose 1.4% for the week and sits 5.6% above last year. The weekly gain is the signal to watch, since it says pricing is still firming even as the annual comparison eased against a higher base a year ago.

The climb has been steady and additive across the quarter, not a spike, which is what has given it staying power through peak, although outbound California is extremely tight on boxes and dray. Elsewhere in the U.S., shippers will find dray is where service failures are occurring.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Down 1.3% vs. prior week
  • Up 46.8% vs. prior year

Truckload spot eased 1.3% for the week but held 46.8% above last year. The weekly dip is small against a cost base that has not come down. With intermodal's year-to-year gap dipping as truckload rises, the linehaul spread widened slightly this week.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $6.199/gallon
  • Down $0.183 (2.9%) vs. prior week
  • Up $2.488 (67%) vs. prior year

Diesel eased a second straight week to $6.199 per gallon, down 18.3 cents (2.9%) on the week and down 33 cents from the September high, though it holds 67.0% above last year.

The driver of high fuel remains the same. This run has its roots in refining and distillate supply, not in crude. A move toward $5 would start to compress the truck-to-rail cost gap, which is the level worth watching from here, although most analysts believe relief is more a 2027 story.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)

 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

North American intermodal volume is 3.3% ahead of 2025 year to date and US volume 4.0% above. The cumulative figures understate the current pace, since a calendar shift around Labor Day skews the YTD growth lower. Set that noise aside and the underlying growth rate is running in the mid-single digits, firmer than the year-to-date reading alone suggests.

The growth is uneven by geography. The Mexico cross-border market is the clear winner, with GMXT at 13.9% year to date. The Western US network is split between strong and moderate rather, as BNSF’s YTD comparison percentage growth is a little over 3 times UP’s percentage growth. The Eastern carriers have slipped to the mid-single digits. Canadian lanes remain under pressure.

Imports are coming in at a fast clip but will pull back as the year progresses. How this plays out in transloads could have a real impact on outbound California domestic capacity.

North American Intermodal

3.3%

U.S. Intermodal

4%

Volume by Railroad

BNSF 5.5%
CN -2.6%
CPKC 1.6%
CSX 5.3%
GMXT 13.9%
NS 3.9%
UP 1.8%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Intermodal Spot Rate Average Per Mile (2014-2026)

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Intermodal Spot Rate Y/Y % Change (2014-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of October 12, 2026.

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Does domestic conversion hold as imports recede?

Recent volume has boosted imports on top of conversion and cross-border, and imports are expected to fall through the fourth quarter. Watch whether domestic truck-to-rail conversion keeps the volume firm as that import tide goes out. That is the test of whether the rebound is built to last.

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How fast does diesel retreat?

Diesel is down two straight weeks and 33 cents off its September high. The tailwind for intermodal vs truckload is no longer building. Watch the pace, since a move toward $5 would start to compress the truck-to-rail cost gap.

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Does the Eastern lag deepen or close?

Eastern carriers slipped to the mid-single digits and now trail the national pace for the first time since spring, while the Mexico cross-border channel runs well ahead. Watch whether the East stabilizes or the gap between the corridors widens further.

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Does the volume step hold? The year-over-year gains for intermodal volume fell back, but that's more due to a Labor Day-related calendar shift. Momentum is still there for now.

  • Was the diesel dip a pause or a turn? If it's a pause, it continued with a second straight week of decline - though the gap versus last year is still 67%. The Gulf is also seeing its first hurricane of the year and refining remains tight - so stay tuned.

  • Does truckload keep pushing into peak? No, the week-over-week gains stopped, falling back slightly. But truckload's annual gap actually ticked up.

About the InTek Intermodal Index:

The InTek Intermodal Index (III) tracks weekly domestic intermodal spot rates on a per-mile basis, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. Each week's report includes comprehensive market analysis covering truckload pricing trends, diesel fuel costs, and railroad intermodal volumes to provide context for rate movements.

With rates tracked weekly since 2008, the Index serves as a resource for shippers, carriers, and industry analysts tracking North American freight market trends.

Citation: InTek Intermodal Index. (2026). Weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Report. Retrieved from https://www.inteklogistics.com/spot-rates

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