Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Domestic Intermodal and Truckload Spot Rates - February 17, 2026

Truckload spot rates are back on the rise, while intermodal spot rates continue to weaken.

Domestic Intermodal Spot Rate Index (excluding fuel):

• Down 0.1% vs. prior week
• Down 5.6% vs. prior year

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

• Up 1.0% vs. prior week
• Up 2.0% vs. prior year

Truckload tender rejection rates remain at multi-year highs, with recent SONAR data showing rejection metrics above typical seasonal ranges and in some reports exceeding 14 percent. Levels not seen since the 2022 cycle. This rise has occurred despite soft overall freight volumes, suggesting capacity erosion rather than a sustained demand surge is driving the trend.

Weather disruptions this winter have amplified volatility and pushed spot rates higher in certain segments, but broader demand indicators remain muted or only modestly positive.

Diesel Fuel

Prices increased for the third consecutive week, and while the move is modest, the direction is worth noting after the steep decline that closed out 2025.

The EIA's February Short-Term Energy Outlook projects the U.S. retail diesel price will average $3.50 per gallon in 2026, down from $3.67 in 2025. The quarterly trajectory tells the story: $3.59 in Q1, dipping to $3.41 in Q2, then firming modestly through Q3 and Q4 at $3.47 and $3.54, respectively. That forecast is underpinned by strong international oil production, with global crude output expected to average 79.55 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 650,000 barrels per day, and cautious demand from freight-generating sectors. EIA expects Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025, with some analysts projecting an outright surplus of 2 million barrels per day.

For now, fuel isn't the primary friction point in the market equation. But it's no longer providing the tailwind it did in 2025. And for shippers with West Coast exposure, the regional dynamics are worth building into landed-cost models sooner rather than later.

Diesel Fuel (EIA):

• $3.711/gallon
• Up $0.023 (0.6%) vs. prior week
• Down $0.023 (0.9%) vs. prior year

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel. )

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

North American Intermodal: -12.8%

United States: -13.4%

Stats by Class I Railroads

• BNSF: -11.9%
• CN: -11.5%
• CPKC: -14.7%
• CSX: -8.4%
• GMXT: 7.1%
• NS: -16.7%
• UP: -20.8%

Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs

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