Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Domestic Intermodal and Truckload Spot Rates - April 6, 2026

This week's data is the most interesting combination we have seen in several weeks. And interesting cuts both ways.

For the first time in a month, intermodal and truckload moved in the same direction. Both up.

Volumes continued improving.

The diesel plateau from last week did not hold. At $5.643, the 2022 record is now $0.167 away.

There is a lot to unpack here, and the framework still matters more than any single week's move.

Domestic Intermodal Spot Rate Index (excluding fuel):

• Up 0.9% vs. prior week
• Down 7.5% vs. prior year

Intermodal spot rates posted their first week-over-week gain after three consecutive weeks of decline. That is worth noting. It is not worth overreading.

One week of modest improvement does not erase a -7.5% year-over-year deficit or establish that a floor has been set. What it does is introduce a data point that needs to be confirmed. If intermodal continues higher next week alongside truckload, the conversation about a potential turn becomes more substantive.

If it fades, this week reads as a brief interruption in a downtrend rather than a reversal. The framework has not changed: intermodal confirming truckload is the signal. One week is not confirmation.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

• Up 3.4% over prior week
• Up 4.5% vs. prior year

Truckload bounced back in a big way after last week's 3.3% pullback. A 3.4% week-over-week gain is a significant move, and the year-over-year comparison of +4.5% is the strongest reading in this cycle. The question is the same one we have been asking for weeks: is this demand-led or supply-driven?

The diesel picture adds complexity. At $5.643 per gallon, smaller carrier exits are accelerating. Capacity is leaving the market for cost and FMCSA crackdown reasons, not because freight demand has structurally recovered.

That dynamic can absolutely push truckload rates higher. But it is a different kind of rate pressure than the kind that sustains a full freight cycle recovery. Intermodal moving up 0.9% alongside truckload's 3.4% gain is the first week where the two have moved together in some time. Not enough to call a turn. Enough to keep watching closely.

Diesel Fuel

There was some thought that maybe diesel fuel would plateau, but that did not hold.

Last week's near-flat reading of $5.401 looked like a possible stabilization point after three weeks of historic increases. This week answered that question. Diesel climbed another $0.242, landing at $5.643 per gallon. Up 55.1% year over year. And now $0.167 away from the 2022 record of $5.810.

At the pace of the past four weeks, that record falls on the next EIA reading if the geopolitical situation does not ease. That is not a prediction. It is where the math points.

The compounding effect on the market is real and building. Smaller carriers who absorbed the initial shock three weeks ago are now four weeks into operating with diesel 50%+ above year-ago levels. Margin structures built on $3.60 diesel do not survive $5.60 diesel without either rate recovery or capacity exits. Both are happening. The truckload rate data above reflects part of that dynamic.

For intermodal providers and IMCs, fuel cost affects dray economics directly. Drayage is the segment that drives the majority of intermodal service failures and cost variability under normal conditions. At these fuel levels, dray carrier stability becomes an operational risk worth monitoring, not just a line item to manage passively.

For shippers, any landed-cost model or mode comparison built before March is now working with materially incorrect fuel assumptions. That gap is wide enough to change modal decisions on lanes that were previously clear intermodal fits.

Diesel Fuel (EIA):

• $5.643/gallon
• Up $0.242 (4.5%) vs. prior week
• Up $2.004 (55.1%) vs. prior year

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel. )

 For more on the implications of Iran on oil and fuel, plus container shipping (which ties into our next topic, intermodal volumes), watch The Intermodal Logistics Podcast episode with Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand: 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

Volumes improved for a fourth consecutive week. The streak is now long enough to be a pattern worth taking seriously.

The U.S. YTD deficit narrowed from -6.5% to -6.1%. North American intermodal moved from -5.8% to -5.4%. The trajectory has been consistent: modest, steady improvement week over week since the worst readings of early March. No single week has been dramatic, but the direction has not reversed.

GMXT surged back to +5.7% after two weeks of moderation around the 2-3% range. That is a meaningful jump and suggests cross-border Mexico freight activity picked up noticeably in this reporting period. Worth watching to see whether that holds or represents a one-week spike.

CSX continues its march toward flat, now at -0.7%. At that pace, CSX crosses into positive year-over-year territory within a week or two if the improvement holds. That would be a notable milestone for one of the major eastern railroads.

The YTD read: four consecutive weeks of volume improvement alongside the first week-over-week gain in intermodal spot rates is the most constructive combination of data points in this report in several months. The year-over-year comparisons are still deeply negative. The diesel situation is still unresolved. But the directional signals are better this week than they have been in some time.

North American Intermodal: -5.4%

United States: -6.1%

Stats by Class I Railroads

• BNSF: -4.3%
• CN: -3.1%
• CPKC: -7.5%
• CSX: -0.7%
• GMXT: 5.7%
• NS: -9.5%
• UP: -13.8%

What to Watch Next Week

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out heading into the week of April 13.

Last week's scorecard:

The diesel plateau did not hold. Diesel resumed climbing, up $0.242 to $5.643. The 2022 record is now $0.167 away. This remains the dominant variable in the market.

The truckload pullback did not deepen. TL bounced back 3.4% week over week. The supply-side interpretation of truckload rate pressure remains intact, but the data demands continued scrutiny.

Intermodal spot rates found at least a short-term floor. Up 0.9% week over week after three consecutive weeks of decline. One week. Needs confirmation.

Three things to watch heading into April 13:

1. Does diesel set a new record? At $5.643, the 2022 high of $5.810 is $0.167 away. Whether that record falls on the next EIA reading depends entirely on how crude markets respond to geopolitical developments in the coming days. A new record would reset expectations for how long this fuel shock persists and deepen the pressure on smaller carriers and dray providers.
2. Does intermodal confirm the truckload move? This is the most important signal in the market right now. Both modes moved higher this week. If intermodal posts a second consecutive week-over-week gain alongside continued truckload strength, the conversation about a potential turn becomes much more serious. If intermodal fades while truckload holds, the supply-side interpretation remains the correct one.
3. Does the volume streak reach five weeks? Four consecutive weeks of YTD improvement is the strongest sustained positive signal in this report. Whether that continues into a fifth week, particularly with diesel at these levels creating uncertainty for shipper behavior, will be an important read on underlying freight demand momentum heading into mid-April.

Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Graphs

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