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InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

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Weekly market intelligence including the InTek Intermodal Index (tracking intermodal spot rates), along with truckload pricing, diesel trends, and railroad volumes

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: July 16, 2026

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending July 13, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▲ +0.3% vs. last week

▲ +2% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▼ -5% vs. last week 

▲ +29.4% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

▲ +4.8% vs. last week 

▲ +27.6% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▲ +3.4%

North American ▲ +2.7%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | July 13, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Last week's truckload jump did not hold. Truckload spot fell 5.0% for the week after climbing 7.4% through the Independence Day week, while intermodal spot moved up 0.3%. The week-over-week spread between the two modes narrowed instead of widening.

But the number is less important than why: The holiday week distorted the reading, and this week is the correction. What did not change is the year-over-year picture. Truckload spot is still running 29.4% above last year while intermodal sits 2% above.

That gap is the durable part of this market, and it is the part a shipper can plan against. The weekly prints are the part that moves on calendar effects, weather, and month-end pushes.

For shippers weighing mode, the discipline this week is to price off the trend rather than the print. Truckload is expensive relative to last year because capacity has tightened, not because freight demand has arrived but because carrier capacity has decreased. Intermodal's advantage on the spread is intact and the volume data continues to show freight finding it, with U.S. intermodal volume up 3.4% year to date. A single week in either direction does not change that read, and building a bid strategy on one week is how shippers end up repricing twice.

InTek Intermodal Index (excluding fuel):

  • Up 0.3% vs. prior week
  • Up 2% vs. prior year

The InTek Intermodal Index (III), which tracks intermodal spot rates, held its ground, up 0.3% for the week and 2.0% against last year.

The year-over-year reading has now stayed positive and firmed for a fourth straight week. Measured movement is what this index does. It does not spike on a holiday week and it does not give back the following week, which is precisely why it is the confirming series rather than the leading one.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Down 5% vs. prior week
  • Up 29.4% vs. prior year

Truckload spot fell 5% for the week, unwinding most of the prior week's 7.4% gain. On the other hand, those rates held their 29.4% advantage over a year ago.

The read is that the July 4 week was calendar distortion on top of a market that is genuinely tighter than last year, instead of the start of a step change. The level to watch is where truckload settles against its pre-holiday base once the seasonal noise clears.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $4.796/gallon
  • Up $0.218 (4.8%) vs. prior week
  • Up $1.038 (27.6%) vs. prior year

Diesel reversed direction and moved up 21.8 cents in a single week to $4.796, the largest weekly move in months, on crude strength tied to renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz.

The year-over-year gap widened to 27.6% from 22.4% last week. Fuel is a pass-through cost on both modes, but it is not a symmetric one.

Intermodal is roughly three times more fuel efficient than over-the-road trucking, so every sustained move up in diesel widens the total-cost gap in intermodal's favor before a single linehaul dollar is compared. Shippers with fuel surcharge exposure on truckload contracts should be modeling this now rather than reading the invoice later.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)

 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

Year-to-date volume held steady, with North American intermodal up 2.7% and US intermodal up 3.4%, both unchanged from last week. GMXT leads at 16.2%, followed by CSX at 5.9%, BNSF at 5.3%, and NS at 4.1%. CN (-1.5%), CPKC (-1.8%), and UP (-2.1%) remain modestly below last year's pace. Every reading moved a tenth or two from last week and none moved direction, which is the shape of a network carrying more freight than it did a year ago without any single week doing the work.

North American Intermodal

2.7%

U.S. Intermodal

3.4%

Volume by Class 1 Railroad

BNSF 5.3%
CN -1.5%
CPKC -1.8%
CSX 5.9%
GMXT 16.2%
NS 4.1%
UP -2.1%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Intermodal Spot Rate Average Per Mile (2014-2026)

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Intermodal Spot Rate Y/Y % Change (2014-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of July 20, 2026.

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Where does truckload settle once the holiday distortion clears?

Two weeks of noise (up 7.4%, then down 5.0%) net out to roughly flat. Watch whether truckload spot finds a level above or below its late-June base. That level, not either week's print, is the honest read on capacity.

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Does diesel hold the jump?

A 21.8-cent weekly move is a supply-shock move. Watch the July 21 EIA release. If diesel holds above $4.75, fuel surcharge exposure becomes a live line item in third-quarter budgets and the intermodal efficiency advantage compounds.

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Does volume confirm the price move?

Price has been running well ahead of volume all year. The Cass Freight Index shipments component is the cleanest test of whether demand is joining the supply-side story or whether this stays a price-and-capacity market.

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Will the truckload-to-intermodal spread continue to widen? No. It narrowed. Truckload gave back 5% while intermodal added 0.3%, closing part of the gap that opened over the holiday week. The year-over-year spread (29.4% versus 2.0%) is unchanged, which is the reading that actually drives mode decisions.

  • Is the post-holiday truckload strength real or a distortion? Mostly distortion. The 7.4% jump reversed by 5.0% the following week, which is what a calendar effect looks like when it unwinds. The underlying tightness is real, and the 29.4% year-over-year level says so. The single-week magnitude was not.

  • What would the next round of freight and economic data show? It landed, and it landed mixed. Second quarter and monthly data started arriving this week, most notably JB Hunt's second quarter results, which came in strong enough that the read coming out of them is that the freight recession is over. On the macro side, the June inflation print eased, and lower fuel costs did much of that work, which dates the reading more than it settles anything. Diesel reversed course in July and widened its year-over-year gap to 27.6%, so the fuel relief inside the June data is already stale.

About the InTek Intermodal Index:

The InTek Intermodal Index (III) tracks weekly domestic intermodal spot rates on a per-mile basis, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. Each week's report includes comprehensive market analysis covering truckload pricing trends, diesel fuel costs, and Class I railroad intermodal volumes to provide context for rate movements.

Published every Thursday since 2014, the Index serves as a resource for shippers, carriers, and industry analysts tracking North American freight market trends.

Citation: InTek Intermodal Index. (2026). Weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Report. Retrieved from https://www.inteklogistics.com/spot-rates

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