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InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

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Weekly market intelligence including the InTek Intermodal Index (tracking intermodal spot rates), along with truckload pricing, diesel trends, and railroad volumes

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: June 4, 2026

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending June 1, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▲ +0.9% vs. last week

▼ -3.1% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▲ +9.2% vs. last week 

▲ +17.3% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

▼ -3.1% vs. last week 

▲ +55.5% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▲ +1.5%

North American ▲ +1.4%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | June 1, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Intermodal spot rates extend their winning streak to nine weeks. Diesel keeps its own streak going, with a 4th straight week of declines. Truckload looks to start another run of its own with one of the largest single-week jumps of this cycle. And volumes continuing to hold positive against a pull-forward-inflated 2025 baseline.

The number that will draw the most attention this week is truckload. A 9.2% week-over-week gain is not a routine data point - especially after two weeks of declines. It demands a careful read. And the intermodal data sitting alongside it is exactly where the framework earns its keep.

InTek Intermodal Index (excluding fuel):

  • Up 0.9% vs. prior week
  • Down 3.1% vs. prior year

Nine consecutive week-over-week gains. After two weeks of near-flat +0.1% readings that raised questions about momentum, the InTek Intermodal Index, which tracks domestic intermodal spot rates, moved 0.9% higher this week. That is a meaningful resumption of the pace that characterized the earlier weeks of this run.

The year-over-year deficit narrowed from 4% to 3.1%, the sharpest single-week improvement in the comparative reading since the recovery began. Intermodal spot rates are still below where they opened the year, and the recovery remains a grinding climb rather than a sharp reversal.

But this week's data removes the stall concern that two consecutive near-flat weeks had introduced. The consolidation appears to have been exactly that, a consolidation, not a top.

Worth noting: intermodal moving 0.9% higher in the same week truckload surged 9.2% is the joint confirmation signal this framework has been built around. Both modes up in the same week, with intermodal participating meaningfully rather than barely holding flat.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Up 9.2% vs. prior week
  • Up 17.3% vs. prior year

A 9.2% week-over-week gain in truckload spot rates is the largest single-week move this report has tracked in the current cycle. The year-over-year comparison jumped from +4.5% to +17.3% in a single week. Both numbers demand careful interpretation before drawing conclusions.

The supply-driven thesis that has anchored this report's analysis for months is the most credible explanation for a move of this size. FMCSA enforcement activity has been systematically removing capacity from the market through the non-domiciled CDL rule, English proficiency enforcement, ELD compliance actions, and chameleon carrier shutdowns.

Diesel at $5.35 per gallon for an extended period has accelerated smaller carrier exits. That capacity does not return quickly. When a demand catalyst of any size hits a market where supply has been quietly eroding for months, the rate response can be exponential.

That said, a 9.2% single-week gain warrants some caution about what is structural versus what is a short-cycle spike. The intermodal data provides the most useful check. Intermodal moved 0.9% higher this week alongside the TL surge. That joint movement is the confirmation signal the framework requires to assign more weight to a genuine market turn rather than a temporary supply squeeze. One week of joint confirmation at this magnitude is significant. Two consecutive weeks would begin to close the debate.

The year-over-year comparison of +17.3% will draw attention across the industry. Put in context: truckload rates were at depressed levels a year ago. The base effect is amplifying the year-over-year number. The week-over-week move is the more reliable signal of what is actually happening in real time.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $5.35/gallon
  • Down $0.173 (3.1%) vs. prior week
  • Up $1.899 (55.5%) vs. prior year

Diesel declined for a fourth consecutive week, posting its largest single-week drop since the easing began. Down $0.173 to $5.350, the most meaningful weekly decline in fuel costs since the March escalation began.

Four consecutive weeks of decline have now pulled diesel back $0.293 from the near-peak of $5.643. The 2022 record of $5.810 now sits $0.460 away, a gap that has more than doubled from the $0.171 distance recorded just three weeks ago.

The pace of this week's decline is worth noting. Prior weeks came in at $0.001, $0.043, and $0.073. This week's $0.173 drop is more than double the prior week's move and suggests the easing may be gaining some momentum rather than simply trickling lower. Whether that continues depends on crude market dynamics that remain tied to geopolitical developments outside the freight market's control.

For carriers, four weeks of declining diesel begins to provide genuine, if still modest, relief to margin structures that were compressed for nearly ten consecutive weeks above $5.60. The capacity damage from that period is not undone by four weeks of easing. But the directional shift matters for operators making near-term decisions about whether to add or shed capacity.

For shippers, $5.350 diesel is still 55.5% above year-ago levels. The planning message has not fundamentally changed. Elevated fuel costs remain the base case through the end of the year. What has changed is the near-term trajectory, and that is worth reflecting in updated landed-cost modeling. The range of outcomes has narrowed on the upside. The downside risk of a geopolitical reversal remains.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)

 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

Volumes improved again. U.S. intermodal is now running +1.5% year over year. North American intermodal is at +1.4%. Both are the strongest readings of the current recovery and represent five consecutive weeks of positive year-over-year U.S. intermodal volumes against a baseline that included significant tariff-driven pull-forward activity from the first half of 2025.

That last point continues to be the most important contextual frame for reading these numbers. The 2025 comparisons through the spring months are among the most challenging of the year precisely because pull-forward activity inflated them. Holding positive and improving against that baseline is a more meaningful signal than the raw percentages suggest on their own.

The railroad-level data continued its steady improvement across most of the network. BNSF extended to +3.9%. CSX reached +4.9%, its strongest reading of the cycle. NS moved to +2.4%. GMXT held at +15.1%, its third consecutive week in the 13-15% range after the extraordinary 20%+ readings of mid-April. That stabilization at an elevated level continues to suggest sustained structural rerouting of cross-border Mexico freight rather than a temporary spike.

UP improved to -5.3%, now more than 13 percentage points recovered from the -18.7% cycle low. The gap to flat is narrowing with each passing week. At the current pace of improvement, UP crosses into positive year-over-year territory within a few weeks if the trend holds. That would be a notable milestone for the railroad that has carried the largest deficit throughout this cycle.

CN slipped to -0.7% and CPKC held at -2.1%, the two remaining railroads in negative territory. CN has been marginally negative for several consecutive weeks without deepening, suggesting it is holding near flat rather than deteriorating. CPKC continues its slow grind toward flat from the -7%+ levels it posted earlier in the year.

North American Intermodal

1.4%

U.S. Intermodal

1.5%

Volume by Class 1 Railroad

BNSF 3.9%
CN -0.7%
CPKC -2.1%
CSX 4.9%
GMXT 15.1%
NS 2.4%
UP -5.3%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Intermodal Spot Rate Average Per Mile (2014-2026)

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Intermodal Spot Rate Y/Y % Change (2014-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of June 8, 2026.

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Does intermodal post a second consecutive week of meaningful gains alongside truckload?

This week's joint movement, with intermodal up 0.9% and truckload up 9.2%, is the strongest confirmation signal this framework has produced in this cycle. A second consecutive week of both modes moving higher together would be the most definitive read yet that demand is contributing to this rally alongside the supply-side dynamics that have driven it since March. That is the single most important data point to watch next week.

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Does the truckload surge hold or retrace?

A 9.2% single-week jump in truckload spot rates is the kind of move that can reflect a genuine step-change in market conditions or a short-cycle spike that partially reverses the following week. Which of those it turns out to be will depend heavily on whether the capacity constraints driving it are structural or whether some temporary catalyst amplified a move that normalizes quickly. The next week's DAT data will begin to answer that question.

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Does diesel continue its four-week easing trend?

Four consecutive weeks of decline have pulled diesel back nearly $0.30 from the near-peak. Whether that trend extends into a fifth week or reverses on renewed geopolitical pressure remains the most consequential external variable in the freight cost equation. A fifth consecutive decline would represent the longest sustained diesel easing since before the March escalation began.

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Intermodal broke out of the +0.1% consolidation pattern, posting a 0.9% week-over-week gain. The momentum question that two consecutive near-flat weeks had raised is answered, at least for now.

  • Truckload did not stabilize. It surged 9.2% week over week, the largest single-week move of the current cycle. The supply-driven thesis remains the primary explanation, but a move of that size alongside intermodal confirmation changes the conversation.

  • Volumes held and improved against the challenging pull-forward baseline. U.S. intermodal reached +1.5% year over year, the strongest reading of the recovery and the fifth consecutive week of positive U.S. volumes.

About the InTek Intermodal Index:

The InTek Intermodal Index (III) tracks weekly domestic intermodal spot rates on a per-mile basis, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. Each week's report includes comprehensive market analysis covering truckload pricing trends, diesel fuel costs, and Class I railroad intermodal volumes to provide context for rate movements.

Published every Thursday since 2014, the Index serves as a resource for shippers, carriers, and industry analysts tracking North American freight market trends.

Citation: InTek Intermodal Index. (2026). Weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Report. Retrieved from https://www.inteklogistics.com/spot-rates

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