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Intermodal Spot Rate Analysis

Weekly market intelligence on freight market pricing, volumes and trends, including InTek Logistics' proprietary Domestic Intermodal Spot Rate Index

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: April 30, 2026

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending April 27, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▲ +0.9% vs. last week

▼ -4.8% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▼ -1.8% vs. last week 

▲ +4.5% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

▼ -1% vs. last week 

▲ +52.3% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▼ -0.1%

North American ▲ +0.4%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | April 27, 2026

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Four weeks ago, intermodal spot rates posted their first week-over-week gain after months of decline.

Four consecutive weeks of intermodal spot rate improvement is no longer a data point to note cautiously. It is a trend. Not a declaration that the freight market has fully recovered. But a trend. And in a market that has been looking for a real signal since July 2022, that distinction matters.

The rest of this week's data adds meaningful context to that trend.

Domestic Intermodal Spot Rate Index (excluding fuel):

  • Up 0.9% vs. prior week
  • Down 4.8% vs. prior year

The year-over-year gap in intermodal spot rates has now narrowed from -8.4% at its worst point in late March to -4.8% this week. That is 3.6 percentage points of recovery in four weeks.

The absolute level is still negative. Intermodal remains below where it was a year ago. But the direction and the consistency of the move are the most constructive readings this report has produced in over a year.

For shippers watching intermodal pricing, the floor appears to be in. Whether rates continue climbing from here or stabilize at current levels is the next question. What the data no longer supports is the narrative that intermodal spot rates are in freefall.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Down 1.8% vs. prior week
  • Up 4.5% vs. prior year

Truckload pulled back again this week. Down 1.8% after last week's 8.4% decline. The truckload spot market is giving back the fuel-stress-driven gains it posted in late March and early April, which is exactly what the intermodal signal suggested would happen at the time.

The year-over-year comparison of +4.5% still looks strong on paper. In practice, that number reflects where truckload rates were a year ago more than it reflects current market strength. Week-over-week, truckload is softening. Intermodal is firming. That is the framework we’ve been waiting for to call out a market turnaround.

This freight market turnaround is being driven by supply, not demand. Capacity is being pulled out, and that’s what’s pushing rates higher. That’s a very different setup than most prior cycles, where demand tightened the market.

If demand recovers while capacity is still constrained, rates won’t just rise. They will accelerate sharply, on a much steeper curve than what we’re seeing today.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $5.351/gallon
  • Down $0.052 (1%) vs. prior week
  • Up $1.837 (52.3%) vs. prior year

Diesel declined for the third consecutive week, though that likely reverses next week as oil prices (and prices at the pump) moved significantly higher over the past couple of days.

From the peak of $5.643 on April 6, diesel has pulled back $0.292 over three weeks to $5.351. The decline is modest relative to the $1.478 run-up that preceded it.

The slight decline means crude markets have, at least temporarily, stopped adding risk premium at the pace they were in March. Whether that holds depends on events well outside the freight market's influence (and again, it looks like it won't hold by this time next week - placing the 2022 record of $5.81 back in sight).

For carriers, three weeks of relief does not undo the damage from five weeks of historic increases. Margin structures that were stressed at $5.60 are still stressed at $5.35.

The bottom line is this. Diesel prices are unlikely to return to pre-Iran war levels anytime soon. It will take months at best, and there’s a real case they never fully reset.

The market just got a clear reminder of how fragile global oil flows are, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. One disruption point can move the entire system. Layer in added instability, including shifts in OPEC alignment such as the UAE stepping back, and the floor under diesel looks structurally higher than it did before.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)


Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

Great news. The volume improvement continues to move forward.

North American intermodal volume sits at +0.4% year over year. The U.S. is at -0.1%, essentially flat. Two weeks ago the U.S. was running at -6.1%. The magnitude of the improvement is real, it held, and the railroad-level data shows it is broad-based rather than concentrated in one corridor.

CSX extended its gains to +4.6%. NS crossed into positive territory at +1.0%, a meaningful milestone for a railroad that was running at -11.9% as recently as late March. BNSF held at +2.2%. CN moderated to +0.4% but stayed positive. GMXT hit +21.7%, its strongest reading yet, reflecting continued extraordinary cross-border Mexico freight activity that is almost certainly tied to supply chain repositioning in response to the tariff environment.

UP remains the notable exception at -7.8%. Improved from -15.9% at the start of the year, but still running meaningfully below last year's pace. The transcontinental west-to-east lanes that UP serves have not recovered at the same pace as the eastern network and cross-border corridors. That gap is worth watching.

CPKC is also still negative at -2.8%, the only other railroad besides UP in negative territory. Both reflect specific network and lane dynamics that the broader volume improvement has not yet reached.

 

 

North American Intermodal

0.4%

U.S. Intermodal

-0.1%

Volume by Class 1 Railroad

BNSF 2.2%
CN 0.4%
CPKC -2.8%
CSX 4.6%
GMXT 21.7%
NS 1%
UP -7.8%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

Intermodal spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

Intermodal spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

Average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Multi-Year Comparison (2021-2026)

Average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Percentage Rate Change (2021-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of April 27, 2026.

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Does intermodal spot rate improvement extend to five consecutive weeks?

Four weeks makes the case that intermodal pricing has found a floor and is beginning a genuine recovery cycle. This is the single most important signal in the market right now.

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Does diesel hold below $5.40?

Three weeks of modest decline have pulled diesel back from its peak. Whether that continues is highly unlikely, but additional declines would be welcomed by shippers and carriers alike.

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Do volumes sustain or show signs of pull-forward fatigue?

The tariff repositioning activity driving GMXT's extraordinary numbers and much of the broader volume improvement will eventually run its course. Whether May freight activity holds at current levels or begins to soften will be the defining question for the second quarter volume picture.

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Intermodal posted a fourth consecutive week-over-week gain. That trend shift matters and is unlikely to reverse, given the pricing spread advantage over truckload.

  • Diesel declined for a third consecutive week. Not a return to normal. Still 52% above year-ago levels.

  • Intermodal volumes continued their upward trajectory.

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