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InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

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Weekly market intelligence including the InTek Intermodal Index (tracking intermodal spot rates), along with truckload pricing, diesel trends, and railroad volumes

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: May 14, 2026

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending May 11, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▲ +0.6% vs. last week

▼ -4% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▲ +1.3% vs. last week 

▲ +4.5% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

= Flat vs. last week 

▲ +62.2% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▲ +0.4%

North American ▲ +0.6%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | May 4, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

Six consecutive weeks of intermodal spot rate improvement, with truckload continuing to climb alongside it. Diesel held essentially flat after last week's sharp reversal. And intermodal volumes are now running ahead of a 2025 pace that itself was inflated by tariff-driven pull-forward activity.

That last point deserves more attention than it typically gets. More on it below.

The freight market picture this week is the most consistently constructive this report has produced since the current cycle began. The framework is saying what it was built to say.

InTek Intermodal Index (excluding fuel):

  • Up 0.6% vs. prior week
  • Down 4% vs. prior year

The InTek Intermodal Index, which tracks domestic intermodal spot rates, has now seen six consecutive weeks of week-over-week gains. The year-over-year deficit has now narrowed from -8.4% at the late-March low to -4.0% this week. That is 4.4 percentage points of recovery in six weeks.

The pace of improvement held steady at 0.6% for a second consecutive week. Modest, but consistent. And consistency over six weeks is the story here, not the size of any individual move. What this report has been watching for since late 2024 is intermodal confirming truckload. That signal has now been present for six straight weeks. At this point, calling it a developing trend undersells what the data is showing.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Up 1.3% vs. prior week
  • Up 4.5% vs. prior year

Truckload moved higher for a second consecutive week alongside intermodal. The year-over-year comparison sits at +4.5% for the second straight reading. Two consecutive weeks of both modes firming together is the configuration this framework assigns the most weight to.

The supply-side interpretation of truckload strength, fuel-driven carrier exits and tightening capacity under FMCSA enforcement, is still part of the equation. But when intermodal moves in the same direction at the same time, demand is also part of the story. That is a different market than the one this report was describing six weeks ago.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $5.64/gallon
  • Flat (0%) vs. prior week
  • Up $2.163 (62.2%) vs. prior year

Diesel essentially stopped moving this week. The EIA reading came in at $5.639, down a negligible $0.001 from last week's $5.640. For practical purposes, flat.

After the sharp $0.289 reversal last week that erased the prior two weeks of modest easing, this week's standstill lands differently depending on how you read it. One interpretation is that the escalation has paused. The other is that diesel is consolidating near its recent peak before the next move. At $5.639, the gap to the 2022 record of $5.810 is still just $0.171. That record remains within reach on a single bad week in the Middle East.

The broader point made in last week's report holds. Even if geopolitical conditions began easing today, diesel does not normalize quickly. Crude purchased at elevated prices is still moving through supply chains. Refiners are processing higher-cost inventory. Carriers and distributors are operating under contracts established during the spike. And the market now carries a structural risk premium for global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz that did not exist at this level before March.

For carriers, a flat week is not relief. It is just not additional pain. The margin pressure from operating at $5.60+ diesel for eight consecutive weeks is compounding regardless of whether the weekly reading ticks up or holds. Capacity decisions made under that pressure do not reverse on a flat EIA print.

For shippers, the planning assumption from last week still applies. Diesel remaining elevated through most of 2026 is the base case. Periodic spikes remain possible. Models built on pre-March fuel assumptions are still materially out of date.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)

 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

There is a context point this week that matters more than the raw numbers.

North American intermodal is running +0.6% ahead of 2025 year to date. The U.S. is at +0.4%. Both are positive, and both have held positive for several consecutive weeks. That is the headline. Here is the context that makes those numbers more meaningful than they first appear.

2025 was not a normal volume baseline. The first several months of 2025 included a significant amount of tariff-driven pull-forward activity, with shippers accelerating imports and freight movements ahead of anticipated trade policy changes. That pull-forward inflated the 2025 YTD numbers that today's figures are being measured against.

In other words, current intermodal volumes are running ahead of a year that had an artificial boost built into it. That is not a minor footnote. It means the underlying demand picture in 2026 may be stronger than the year-over-year comparison alone suggests. Outrunning a pull-forward-inflated prior year baseline, even modestly, is a more constructive signal than the same percentage would indicate against a normal year.

Why though? It's more based on movement from truckload to intermodal than on overall heavy freight demand.

GMXT continued its extraordinary run at +21.8%, now holding above 20% for four consecutive weeks. These volumes reflect a sustained and meaningful shift in cross-border Mexico freight flows as supply chains continue repositioning in response to the tariff environment. The consistency of that reading week after week suggests structural rerouting rather than a short-term spike.

CSX held at +4.5%. BNSF extended to +2.7%. NS improved to +1.5%. The eastern network and cross-border corridors continue leading the recovery. CN slipped slightly to -0.4%, crossing back into marginally negative territory after two weeks at or near flat.

UP remains the most notable gap in the recovery at -7.1%. Improved from the -18.7% cycle low, but still running meaningfully below last year's pace. CPKC held at -2.7%. Both railroads continue reflecting specific network and lane dynamics that the broader recovery has not yet fully reached.

North American Intermodal

0.6%

U.S. Intermodal

0.2%

Volume by Class 1 Railroad

BNSF 2.7%
CN -0.4%
CPKC -2.7%
CSX 4.5%
GMXT 21.8%
NS 1.5%
UP -7.1%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Intermodal Spot Rate Average Per Mile (2014-2026)

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Intermodal Spot Rate Y/Y % Change (2014-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of May 18, 2026.

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Does the joint IM and TL confirmation extend to a third consecutive week?

Two weeks of both modes moving higher together is the framework's confirmation threshold. A third consecutive week would move the conversation from "this looks like a turn" to "this is a turn." That is the most important signal to track in next week's data.

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Does diesel finally break one direction or the other?

Eight weeks near or above $5.60 with no sustained resolution. The 2022 record is $0.171 away. A move lower would begin to relieve carrier margin pressure and allow shipper cost models to stabilize. A move higher sets a new record and resets the pressure on everyone in the supply chain. One of those outcomes is coming. Flat cannot hold indefinitely at these levels.

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Does the volume comparison hold against the pull-forward baseline?

As the calendar moves further into May, the 2025 comparisons get harder, not easier. The tariff pull-forward activity in 2025 was concentrated in the first half of the year. Staying positive against that elevated baseline over the next several weeks will be a test of whether current demand is real or whether the easy part of the year-over-year comparison is already behind us. 

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Intermodal confirmed truckload for a second consecutive week. Both modes up 1.3% and 0.6% respectively. The demand-side interpretation of current rate strength is now supported by two straight weeks of joint confirmation. That is the framework's strongest signal.

  • Diesel did not breach the 2022 record. It essentially flatlined at $5.639. The immediate threat of a new record high paused, but the gap remains just $0.171.

  • U.S. intermodal volumes held positive year over year for a second consecutive week. The pull-forward fade concern has not materialized. And as noted above, holding positive against a pull-forward-inflated 2025 baseline makes the reading more meaningful than the raw number suggests.

About the InTek Intermodal Index:

The InTek Intermodal Index (III) tracks weekly domestic intermodal spot rates on a per-mile basis, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. Each week's report includes comprehensive market analysis covering truckload pricing trends, diesel fuel costs, and Class I railroad intermodal volumes to provide context for rate movements.

Published every Thursday since 2014, the Index serves as a resource for shippers, carriers, and industry analysts tracking North American freight market trends.

Citation: InTek Intermodal Index. (2026). Weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Report. Retrieved from https://www.inteklogistics.com/spot-rates

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