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InTek Intermodal Index (III) Weekly Market Analysis

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Weekly market intelligence including the InTek Intermodal Index (tracking intermodal spot rates), along with truckload pricing, diesel trends, and railroad volumes

Updated every Thursday | Last updated: June 11, 2026

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This Week at a Glance

Week ending June 8, 2026

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Intermodal Spot Rate

(excluding fuel)

▲ +1.1% vs. last week

▼ -1.5% vs. last year

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Truckload Spot Rate

(excluding fuel, DAT)

▲ +0.8% vs. last week 

▲ +17.3% vs. last year

 

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Diesel Fuel

(EIA National Average)

▼ -2.6% vs. last week 

▲ +50.1% vs. last year

 

 

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Intermodal Volume

(YTD vs. 2025)

U.S. ▲ +2.1%

North American ▲ +1.8%

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This Week's Analysis

By Rick LaGore, CEO, InTek Logistics | June 8, 2026

Analysis of the InTek Intermodal Index (III) and freight market trends

Trends in the Intermodal Transportation Spot Rate and Market

It's getting a bit repetitive, but that's the nature of a trend. Ten consecutive weeks of intermodal spot rate improvement. Both modes moving higher together for the second straight week. Diesel declining for a fifth consecutive week. And U.S. intermodal volumes posting their strongest year-over-year reading of the current recovery.

The rate progression across intermodal, truckload, and diesel is the most constructive combination this report has produced since the current cycle began. Two consecutive weeks of joint intermodal and truckload confirmation is the threshold this report identified as the signal that would move the conversation from "this looks like a turn" to "this is a turn."

That threshold has been crossed. But there is an important qualifier that shippers need to hear alongside it.

Volume growth in this cycle is not behaving the way prior rate rallies have. Rates are moving. Volume improvement is modest by comparison. That disconnect is a reason to pay closer attention to what it means - not a reason to dismiss it entirely. This rally is being driven by supply leaving the market, not by a surge in freight demand. Capacity that has exited under the weight of sustained fuel costs and FMCSA enforcement pressure does not come back quickly. The market is tighter than the volume numbers suggest.

The practical message for shippers is straightforward. When freight demand does return in force, and it will, truckload rates in particular are going to respond faster and harder than prior cycles would lead you to expect. The slack that normally cushions a demand surge has been quietly removed from the market. Shippers who are not positioned ahead of that move will feel it acutely. The time to build intermodal programs and lock in capacity is now, not after the volume arrives.

InTek Intermodal Index (excluding fuel):

  • Up 1.1% vs. prior week
  • Down 1.5% vs. prior year

We've reached double-digits: 10 consecutive week-over-week gains, as the InTek Intermodal Index - which tracks domestic intermodal spot rates - moved 1.1% higher this week. The year-over-year deficit has now narrowed from -8.4% at the late-March cycle low to -1.5% this week. That is 6.9 percentage points of recovery in 10 weeks.

Last week's 0.9% resumption after two near-flat weeks raised the question of whether momentum had returned. This week's 1.1% gain answers it. The consolidation that appeared in weeks seven and eight of this run was exactly what it looked like: a pause before the next leg higher.

Intermodal spot rates are now within 1.5% of where they were a year ago. At the current pace of weekly improvement, that year-over-year gap closes to flat within the next two to three weeks. When that happens, it will be the first time intermodal spot rates have matched or exceeded prior year levels since the current downcycle began.

The broader context still applies. Intermodal spot rates ex-fuel remain below where they opened the year. This is a recovery, and still far from a boom. But the direction, the consistency, and the acceleration of the past two weeks represent a meaningfully different freight market than the one this report was describing in early March.

National Truckload Spot Rate (DAT, excluding fuel): (DAT Trendline Report)

  • Up 0.8% vs. prior week
  • Up 17.3% vs. prior year

Truckload moved higher for a second consecutive week alongside intermodal. The week-over-week gain of 0.8% is modest compared to last week's extraordinary 9.2% surge, but the direction held. That is the data point that matters most this week.

Two consecutive weeks of both modes moving higher together is the joint confirmation signal this framework assigns its highest weight to. Last week's 9.2% TL spike alongside intermodal's 0.9% gain was striking but raised the question of whether the truckload move would hold or retrace.

Spoiler alert: It held. A 0.8% follow-through after a 9.2% surge is not the behavior of a temporary spike correcting back toward baseline. It is the behavior of a market that has found a higher level and is consolidating there.

The year-over-year comparison holds at +17.3% for the second straight week. The base effect from depressed 2025 truckload rates is still amplifying that number. But with both modes now confirming each other for two consecutive weeks, the demand-side contribution to the current rally is clearly showing in the data.

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Diesel Fuel (EIA):

  • $5.21/gallon
  • Down $0.14 (2.6%) vs. prior week
  • Up $1.739 (50.1%) vs. prior year

Diesel declined for a fifth consecutive week. At $5.210, fuel has now pulled back $0.433 from the near-peak of $5.643 reached on April 6. That is the most sustained diesel easing this report has tracked since the Middle East escalation began in early March.

Five consecutive weeks of decline at an accelerating pace: $0.001, $0.043, $0.073, $0.173, and $0.140 respectively. The direction has been consistent and the cumulative relief is beginning to matter for carrier economics in a way that the first two or three weeks of modest decline could not.

The 2022 record of $5.81 now sits 60 cents away. Six weeks ago that gap was $0.17. The threat of a new diesel record has moved from imminent to theoretical, at least for now. The geopolitical situation that drove the March escalation has not fully resolved, and crude markets can reprice quickly on new developments. But the sustained nature of this pullback suggests the risk premium embedded in crude pricing has moderated meaningfully since the peak.

A month-plus of declining diesel represents real relief for carriers after 10 consecutive weeks above $5.60. Margin structures that were severely compressed in March and April are beginning to recover. That does not mean capacity returns to the market quickly. Carriers who exited during the worst of the fuel shock made structural decisions that do not reverse on a few weeks of easing. But the pace of exits slows and the economics of staying in the market improve for operators who held on.

For shippers, $5.21 diesel is still 50.1% above year-ago levels. The elevated fuel environment has not normalized. What has changed is that the trajectory is now working in shippers' favor for the first time since early March, and the cumulative pullback of $0.433 is large enough to begin meaningfully updating landed-cost models. Build those models around a range that reflects both the current downward trajectory and the continued possibility of geopolitical reversal.

(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel.)

 

Year-to-Date Intermodal Volume by Region and Railroad vs. 2025

U.S. intermodal volumes reached +2.1% year over year this week. North American intermodal is at +1.8%. Both are the strongest readings of the current recovery and continue a streak of six consecutive weeks of positive U.S. year-over-year intermodal volumes.

The context that has accompanied this volume data for several weeks continues to apply and continues to matter. These positive readings are being measured against a 2025 baseline that included meaningful tariff-driven pull-forward activity concentrated in the spring months. The 2025 comparisons through June are among the most challenging of the year. Holding positive and improving against that baseline week after week is a stronger underlying signal than the headline percentages suggest.

That said, not all of the volume improvement may be driven by organic demand growth. There are data points suggesting some shippers are making pull-forward inventory buys now, essentially trading cash flow for more favorable fuel costs today versus the risk of higher costs later. With diesel still 50% above year-ago levels and the geopolitical situation unresolved, that logic is not hard to follow. Shippers who believe fuel will climb again in the coming months have an economic incentive to move freight sooner rather than later.

Worth noting for the same reason flagged in prior reports: pull-forward volume is real volume. It moves boxes, fills ramps, and tightens capacity. But it borrows from future demand rather than creating new demand. If that dynamic is contributing meaningfully to current volume readings, the comparisons a few months from now get harder, not easier.

North American Intermodal

1.8%

U.S. Intermodal

2.1%

Volume by Class 1 Railroad

BNSF 4.4%
CN -0.8%
CPKC -2.1%
CSX 5.2%
GMXT 16.5%
NS 2.7%
UP -4.2%

 

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Intermodal Spot Rate Trend Charts

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile including fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Including Fuel)

  

InTek Intermodal Index (III) spot rate per mile excluding fuel, showing weekly trends

Intermodal Spot Rate Per Mile (Excluding Fuel)

 

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal spot rate per mile from 2021 to 2026 Intermodal Spot Rate Average Per Mile (2014-2026)

InTek Intermodal Index (III) average intermodal percentage rate change per mile from 2021 to 2026

Intermodal Spot Rate Y/Y % Change (2014-2026)

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What to watch next week

Three things to watch heading into the week of June 15, 2026.

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Does the year-over-year intermodal deficit close to flat?

At -1.5%, intermodal spot rates are within striking distance of matching last year's levels for the first time in this downcycle. At the current pace of weekly improvement, that crossing happens within two to three weeks. When intermodal spot rates go year-over-year positive, it will mark a definitive end to the rate trough that has defined this market since 2024. Watch whether the pace of improvement holds or accelerates from here.

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Does joint IM and TL confirmation extend to a third consecutive week?

Two weeks of both modes moving higher together crossed the confirmation threshold. Three consecutive weeks would be the strongest sustained signal this framework has produced in this cycle and would effectively close the debate about whether demand is contributing to the current rally alongside the supply-side dynamics. That is the most important rate signal heading into mid-June.

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Does diesel continue toward $5?

Five consecutive weeks of decline have pulled diesel from $5.643 to $5.210. The psychological $5 level is now 21 cents away. Whether diesel continues its current trajectory or stabilizes around current levels depends on crude market developments. A move below $5.00 would represent a meaningful milestone in normalizing freight costs and would begin to provide real, rather than marginal, relief to carrier margin structures.

Last week's scorecard

Last week we flagged three things. Here is how they played out.

  • Intermodal posted a second consecutive week of meaningful gains at +1.1%, confirming that the consolidation phase is over and the recovery has resumed with momentum.

  • The truckload surge held. After last week's extraordinary 9.2% jump, TL added another 0.8% this week. Two consecutive weeks of both modes moving higher together crossed the joint confirmation threshold this framework identified as the signal that matters most.

  • Diesel continued its easing trend for a fifth consecutive week, down $0.140 to $5.210. The cumulative pullback from the April peak now stands at $0.433. Five weeks of sustained decline at an accelerating pace.

About the InTek Intermodal Index:

The InTek Intermodal Index (III) tracks weekly domestic intermodal spot rates on a per-mile basis, both including and excluding fuel surcharges. Each week's report includes comprehensive market analysis covering truckload pricing trends, diesel fuel costs, and Class I railroad intermodal volumes to provide context for rate movements.

Published every Thursday since 2014, the Index serves as a resource for shippers, carriers, and industry analysts tracking North American freight market trends.

Citation: InTek Intermodal Index. (2026). Weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Report. Retrieved from https://www.inteklogistics.com/spot-rates

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