Intermodal volumes keep growing - but uncertainty looms

Intermodal volumes have shown year-over-year growth for six straight quarters, but tariff-related uncertainty could stop the momentum as 2025 goes on. That's according to the Intermodal Savings Index for the first quarter of this year from the Journal of Commerce (JOC). The continued increase in intermodal volumes has the total between domestic and international up 6.3% over Q1 of last year and 5.6% for domestic-only.

Domestic volume, in fact, came in at 2.11 million containers according to Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) figures, in line with forecasts. However, container volumes have already slowed on the West Coast, a primary feeder of the domestic intermodal market, as tariffs have been announced, implemented or threatened (and paused or pulled-back). And if the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach experience a sustained drop in trade activity with China and other Asian countries - intermodal volumes will follow that dip down as 2025 continues.

On the rate side, players in the intermodal spot market are seeing higher than normal savings versus truckload, an average of 19.2% and the lowest level since the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. That spot savings compares favorably to the long-term average of 17% - explained by authors as intermodal carriers and railroads looking to capture and maintain volume. Savings is still greater for long-term shippers, who are seeing contract rates at 25.6% below truckload. It should be noted that those savings are slightly below the 28.3% index average and flat year over year, yet undeniably significant.

In terms of service, the early part of the quarter dealt with wintry weather conditions, which slowed trains. The average speed among Class 1 railroads was measured at 30.1 mph, a three-year low as measured by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board. On the plus-side of the ledger, the number of loaded intermodal railcars excessively idling dropped 15%.

For more information and commentary on the intermodal market from January to March of 2025, subscribe to the Journal of Commerce to read the full report.

Each quarter, the Journal of Commerce (JOC) releases its proprietary Intermodal Savings Index, which combines real data from the intermodal and truckload marketplace with forecasts and more. We provide statistics used in this valuable look at the intermodal market as it relates to truckload options. Find some of our contributions in our weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis.

Need assistance with intermodal shipping - or just about any other shipping or logistics need? Let us know, and we'll discuss how you can put us to work for your company. We also have a variety of useful information about intermodal, plus freight and logistics in general (as well as what we do at InTek) in our Freight Guides. Additionally, watch (and/or listen to) The Intermodal Logistics Podcast for more on the industry.