The divergence between truckload and intermodal continues, and it is worth paying close attention to what that gap is actually saying about this market.
Truckload spot rates are nudging higher. Intermodal spot rates are moving in the opposite direction. That combination has a very specific meaning, and it is not the one some in the market are hoping for.
Intermodal spot rates are not cooperating with the truckload narrative. Rates are down week over week and down meaningfully year over year. For context, intermodal spot rates have been compressed since 2024 and show no statistical sign of turning. That matters because intermodal and truckload rates carry a very tight historical correlation. When truckload moves and intermodal does not follow, the truckload move tends to be short-lived.
This week is another data point in that pattern.
Truckload spot rates are showing modest upward pressure. That pressure is real. The question is whether it reflects genuine demand growth or something more temporary — tighter capacity driven by the diesel price shock hitting smaller carriers, weather disruptions, or short-cycle restocking activity.
The intermodal data suggests the latter. Strong underlying freight demand does not produce a 1% truckload gain alongside a 1.9% intermodal decline. Those two things do not move in opposite directions in a demand-led recovery. They move together.
Until intermodal confirms the truckload move, the truckload uptick should be read as a signal to watch, not a signal to declare the market has turned.
A $0.962/gallon increase in a single week is the largest one-week jump in the EIA weekly diesel dataset going back to January 2016. Larger than any single-week move during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. That is not hyperbole. That is what the data shows.
The driver is the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Crude oil is a globally priced commodity, and roughly 21% of world daily oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz. When that corridor is threatened, futures markets reprice immediately. Retail diesel follows within days.
What this means practically: fuel surcharges will increase on the next weekly FSC cycle. Carriers and rail providers index their surcharge schedules directly to the EIA national average. A move of this size will show up on invoices. The full historical weekly price record is available at the EIA website.
A few additional points worth noting on diesel:
At $4.859/gallon, diesel is now 32.5% above the 2025 annual average of $3.660. Carriers operating on thin margins — particularly smaller truckload operators — will feel this immediately. Some of the truckload rate pressure noted above may be a capacity response to fuel cost, not a demand signal. Those are very different things for how the market behaves over the coming weeks.
Watch this closely. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, diesel can retrace. If it escalates further, the 2022 record of $5.810 comes back into view.
(The full spreadsheet of the historical weekly price moves of diesel full can be found at https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel. )
The volume picture is blunt. North American intermodal is running nearly 8% below last year's pace through the first ten weeks of 2026. The U.S. market is down even more at -8.8%.
The railroad-level breakdown is where the story gets more specific.
UP and NS are carrying the heaviest load here — down 15.9% and 13.0% respectively. Those are not marginal declines. They reflect meaningful lane-level softness in the corridors those railroads serve. At the same time, GMXT is the lone positive at +5.3%, which reflects the continued strength of cross-border Mexico freight holding up better than domestic U.S. volumes.
BNSF and CN are performing relatively better, but even their numbers reflect a market that is still working through the same headwinds: tariff uncertainty dampening import and manufacturing freight, restocking activity that creates replacement freight rather than growth freight, and a consumer spending picture that has held in some channels but not translated into broad-based volume lift.
The volume data also adds important context to the diesel spike. A $0.962/gallon increase in a week where intermodal volumes are already down 8.8% year-over-year creates a compounding pressure on rail economics and on the IMC providers managing those lanes. Cost goes up. Volume is not there to absorb it. That is a difficult position for any operator in this space.
Three things matter most heading into the week of March 16:
1. Does diesel stabilize or climb further? The next EIA reading will tell whether this is a one-week shock or the beginning of a sustained move. The 2022 precedent shows how quickly diesel can run from $4 to $5+ once geopolitical risk is priced in.
2. Does intermodal spot rate hold or continue declining? A second straight week of intermodal weakness alongside truckload firming would reinforce the thesis that the TL move is temporary. A reversal in intermodal would be the first meaningful signal that something structural has changed.
3. Volume trajectory for March. The first two weeks of March set the tone for whether the -8.8% YTD gap closes or widens. Railroad weekly volume reports from AAR will be the key data source.
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