Volumes down, spot savings up for intermodal as 2025 ends

Import activity that frontloaded due to tariffs earlier in the year appeared to pay the piper as 2025 came to an end, as shown in Q1's Intermodal Savings Index by the Journal of Commerce (JOC). The drop of 2.1% in North American intermodal volume in the fourth quarter ends a string of eight consecutive quarters (or two full years) of year-to-year volume gains. Savings, though, was strong for spot rates versus truckload and steady on the contract side.

Volume winning streak ends

The year over year winning streak on intermodal volumes fell flat according to Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) figures. IANA counted 4.6 million loads transported via North American intermodal for the final three months of 2025 (it was 4.7 million in Q4, 2024). Domestic container volume also fell versus the prior year, down 1.8% with 2.36 million 53-footers transported via that mode.

The culprit for the decline appears to be one of the terms of the year in freight and logistics - pull-forward - as shippers had wrapped much of their inventory movement early as they tried to avoid the worst of the tariffs imposed by President Trump, though on the domestic side, volume did tick up a bit in December.

Intermodal spot savings soars

On the pricing side, those playing the intermodal spot market came up big in the last quarter of 2025, as savings measured in at 25.6% thanks to surging truckload rates. Traditionally, spot intermodal savings averages 16-19% - so the increase was notable. That difference also means, according to authors, there's room for spot intermodal rates to rise while maintaining a significant edge versus over the road.

For the more commonly used contract intermodal market, savings remained consistent at 25.4%, just below its normal range of 26-29%. Over the past year, the rolling average of contract savings came in at 25.2%, while the rolling spot savings average was 20.5%.

For more information and commentary on the intermodal market from October to December of 2025, subscribe to the Journal of Commerce to read the full report. Learn more about tracking both intermodal savings and service, with the report's author Ari Ashe, on The Intermodal Logistics Podcast:

Each quarter, the Journal of Commerce (JOC) releases its proprietary Intermodal Savings Index, which combines real data from the intermodal and truckload marketplace with forecasts and more. We provide statistics used in this valuable look at the intermodal market as it relates to truckload options. Find some of our contributions in our weekly Intermodal Spot Rate Pricing Trendline Analysis.

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